The unprecedented victory of the Tigrayan rebel forces at the end of June against two of Africa’s strongest armies has sent shockwaves across East Africa. Such a victory against well-funded government forces is something that has not been seen globally since the Islamic State’s rout of the Iraqi army in June 2014. The Ethiopian government is scrambling to arrange a ceasefire, but so far, the Tigrayan forces have scoffed at any suggestion until their demands are met.
One can be forgiven for feeling slightly out of the loop on this topic. Last autumn, the Ethiopian army, supported by their former enemy, Eritrea, invaded the Tigrayan region in northeast Ethiopia and forced the regional government to flee into the mountains.
However, this retreat and descendance into guerrilla warfare was beneficial to the Tigrayan army. Much like the Taliban in Afghanistan, many of whom were members of the Mujahideen who fought back the Soviets in the 1980s, the Tigrayans were masters of the rugged terrain of Northern Ethiopia. For over four decades, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have used this mountainous region to become, until they were ousted from power in 2018, the most powerful political force in East Africa. They fought a successful insurgency against the Communist Derg regime in the 1980s, a war against Eritrea in the late 1990s, and now a combined enemy in Abiy Ahmed’s Ethiopia and Isaias Afwerki’s Eritrea. With this experience, the rebels cleverly bided their time until both their enemies were preparing to demobilize their forces.
By the end of June, the Tigrayans had recaptured their capital, Mekelle. Both Eritrea and Ethiopia, realising that they had been overrun, hastily called for a ceasefire, although it was completely ignored by the TPLF. The war is now turning into a dire situation for Abiy Ahmed, who was controversially re-elected as Ethiopia’s on the 21st June. The TPLF have now crossed over Tigray’s borders into the neighbouring regions of Amhara and Afar, the latter of which holds a key rail link to Djibouti, where over 90% of landlocked Ethiopia’s trade flows.
Abiy Ahmed is turning to the ethnic militias of these regions to save Ethiopia from collapse. They hope to stir these poorly trained fighters by spreading allegations of Tigrayan atrocities and invoking the spirit of 1896, where tribal Ethiopian forces successfully repelled a modern Italian army. The TPLF are indeed better-equipped than their counterparts, having captured the Ethiopian heavy artillery and many of their guns when they routed government forces last month. Yet, it will be risky for the TPLF to extend any further. Part of the reason why their push through Tigray was so swift was due to the support of the local people. In Amhara and Afar, they will face hostile populations, dreadful terrain and climate conditions and be subject to the same guerrilla warfare that they imposed on the Ethiopians and Eritreans.
The war looks to be nearing a stalemate. It would be risky for the TPLF to press towards Addis Ababa, hoping to topple Ahmed and his government, as the Tigrayans do not have many friends left outside their home region following their 27-year stint in power. The Ethiopians do not have the resources to beat back the highly trained and well-equipped Tigrayans as of yet. Even if Abiy Ahmed does achieve victory, he will likely have to make concessions to the regional governments that supported him, making the country more fragmented and destabilised. Whatever happens, it is likely that the rapid growth of the Ethiopian economy over the last decade will be halted or put into decline. The rising star of East Africa looks to be dwindling.
Emerging Tomorrow 