Water Wars: are Ethiopia and Egypt heading towards conflict?

The building of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam has been controversial to say the least. The $5bn project along the Blue Nile is aiming to alleviate the fast-industrialising country’s power shortage, as well as being able to export excess energy to neighbouring countries (Reuters, 2021). As of 2023, two of the thirteen turbines have entered operation, generating 750MW of electricity for Ethiopia’s national power grid (Financial Times, 2022).  Upon its completion, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa.

However, the project has drawn fierce criticism from its downstream neighbours, Sudan and Egypt, as they claim it violates a 1959 treaty that gave the two countries exclusive access to all the Nile Waters. Over the past decade, there have been multiple threats of war from both Sudan and Egypt, as they fear the construction of the dam would permanently reduce their water availability and hinder electricity generation from hydroelectric projects within their own borders. Ethiopia, however, are not budging: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has ignored threats from its northern neighbours and has continually re-stressed what it believes to be the economic and social benefits to the region. Amongst these is the reduced risk of flooding downstream, particularly in Sudan, where 146 people, and tens of thousands of homes were destroyed last year (OCHA, 2022).

The dialogue between the three nations, however, remains complicated. International mediators, like the United States and the United Arab Emirates, have attempted on numerous occasions to reach a compromise, but attempts so far have proven futile. Egypt’s position is understandable, the Nile is the lifeblood of the nation, around 95% of the country’s population lives within a few kilometres of the river. It supports agriculture, industry and provides a regular supply of water to over 107 million people. But, the myriad of benefits that the dam will provide Ethiopia means that it cannot afford to halt construction. With Ethiopia still dealing with the aftermath of the Tigray conflict, and Egypt suffering from economic turmoil domestically, a solution to this water dispute is currently looking unlikely.